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Gold Seasonality Chart Points to Strong Gains Sept through February

The month of September has historically been the strongest for precious metals. Since the start of the current bull market, gold has averaged a gain of 2.6% during the month of September. This is typically followed by a smaller gain of 0.8% in October and then a few more strong months in November, January and February. Taken together, we are exiting the weakest seasonal period for gold (Spring-Summer) and entering into the strongest seasonal period (Fall-Winter).

The following chart has been updated to include data through September of 2014:

gold seasonality


Of course, seasonality is just an average and not a guarantee that past performance will repeat.  However, physical buying typically increases during the back half of the year as India’s festival and wedding seasons kick in. Chinese purchases also tend to increase toward year-end. Traders take cues from these seasonal numbers and create additional buying momentum. 

I believe it is wise to hold physical precious metals in your possession, especially as the geopolitical instability spikes and de-dollarization accelerates. This may be an opportune time to buy before gold and silver move into their strongest seasonal months.  Despite the lack of action over the past few years, gold’s fundamentals remain strong and signal plenty of upside ahead.

In addition to holding physical bullion in your possession, you may also want to consider holding a few of the best-in-breed junior mining stocks.  The greatest gains during uplegs can be found in this very volatile sector which is currently undervalued.  In fact, mining stocks are offering some of the best entry points (relative to the metals) that we have seen during this entire gold bull market.

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By | 2017-03-23T14:06:19+00:00 September 2nd, 2014|Gold & Silver Commentary|

About the Author:

Jason is the founder of He previously worked in data analytics for the world's largest research firm, consulting to Fortune 500 companies globally. Jason eventually leveraged those skills to trade successfully full-time and after helping friends and family optimize their investments, he launched Gold Stock Bull and The GSB Contrarian Report newsletter. Jason is a cycles investor with a contrarian eye for identifying undervalued assets. He has built an expertise in both the precious metals and cryptocurrency markets. Jason believes in honest money, limited government, decentralization of power and enjoys studying alternative economic models.