The June 23 referendum on whether or not the UK should leave the EU is fast approaching. New polls show that those favoring a leave vote or “Brexit” are leading by 10 to 20 points. This has sent ripples through the markets, as a Brexit is likely to cause economic chaos in the EU, cripple European banks and lead to a Recession.
It is not that voters in the United Kingdom want nothing to do with the EU. Instead, they prefer a mutually-beneficial economic relationship, rather than an economic and political arrangement with the Europenan Union:
“Clearly we can be free, have more democracy and be better off if we ditch or cancel our EU membership, and join a Free Trade Agreement like the one people thought they were voting for in 1975.”
A recent poll ‘The Independent’ shows that 55 per cent of UK voters intend to vote for Britain to leave the EU, by far the biggest lead the Leave camp has enjoyed since ORB began polling the EU issue for The Independent a year ago. Back then, those wishing to stay had a 10-point lead, so the tables have completely turned.
Still, polling experts are quick to point out that there has been a late swing to the “status quo” option in previous referendums, including the one on Scottish independence in 2014. They also point out that telephone polls consistently give the Stay vote a higher rating than online surveys dominated by more youthful voters.
Several European banks including UBS WM, Citigroup, IHS, SocGen and Eurasia put the odds of Brexit much lower than polls, estimating 30% to 40%. Of course, the banks benefit from the UK remaining in the EU and the centralization of banking power, so their projections are not exactly objective.
While the power elite are concerned about the impact to the economy, they are much more concered about contagion. Several other nations may feel emboldened by a BREXIT vote and decide they also want to leave the failed experiment known as the European Union. While economic alliances, trade and commerce make sense, cedeing sovereinty is probably not the wisest move for nations wishing for the economic boost.
Given that a Brexit would decentralize power and disrupt the power elite, I think the referendum is likley to be rigged in favor of the UK staying within the EU. There is simply too much at stake to allow the people to have a say. We have seen the same type of voter suppression in the United States Presidential election. It is nothing new.
Investors will be watching closesly on June 21, two days before the referendum. On this evening there will be a debate that will help to sway undecided voters.
How Will Brexit Will Impact the Gold and Silver Market?
Many analysts believe that if Brexit happens, gold and silver prices will soar. Investors will pull their money from the stock marekts and banks, seeking safe-haven assets instead. If the Euro currency plummets, they will also look to get out of cash and into real money such as gold and silver. These fears are also part of the reason for the sharp rise in crypto-currencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
James Butterfill, head of research and investment strategy at ETF Securities, echoes this sentiment:
“Brexit would be very beneficial for shorting sterling and we will probably see a big pick up in gold. In that scenario we think gold could hit $1,400